Delta Flows: The reckoning of California’s regional economic planning and water availability

In this edition of Delta Flows, our Executive Director Barbara Barrigan-Parrilla reflects on what it truly means to build a sustainable and equitable climate economy, including Restore the Delta and partners’contribution in response to the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) Regarding the Reinitiation of Consultation on Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley and State Water Projects and the politics behind the Delta smelt.


While Restore the Delta continues to defend the SF Bay-Delta estuary through policy work, advocacy, and public process participation, over the last six years we have also been involved in economic planning efforts through numerous state and regional initiatives that focus on the development of an inclusive green economy.

At first glance, a new economy tackling the impacts of climate change while providing true economic opportunities for all communities appears to be a noble endeavor for our future – and it is. We fully support and are working at the local and regional level to build new green economy programs that will support ecosystem health and the health of all people in the Delta region.

The problem, however, is that California is failing to incorporate sustainable water planning based on true water availability within emerging climate programs and new energy technologies. Instead, numerous economic plans for the San Joaquin Valley rely on continually increasing Delta exports. Whether or not the tunnel is built– which of course would only hasten the destruction of the estuary and watersheds– if we do not manage the Delta and California’s water delivery systems sustainably today, we will irreparably destroy the estuary for future generations. 

We will lose its intrinsic value as a habitat for 700 native species, including birds, fish, terrestrial species, and native plants. Our regional agriculture and recreational economies will be decimated, much like the commercial salmon fishing industry due to two years of fishery closures in California. We will lose a national treasure, the largest estuary on the West Coast of the Americas.

We will also fall short in developing a sustainable and equitable climate economy for California if we cannot deliver water supplies for new industries and land uses. Sprawl development in Southern California deserts, featuring master planned communities with artificial lakes and water features, will not only fail to provide the affordable housing that is so desperately needed throughout the state, but it will also further drain State Water Project flows from the Delta.

Dangerous Impacts from Mismanagement of Delta Flows in Recent Decades

Restore the Delta was a limited contributor to a collaborative effort to respond to the 2024 Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) Regarding the Reinitiation of Consultation on Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley and State Water Projects. This plan outlines how water supply is managed for the Central Valley and State Water Projects in a coordinated manner. The decades-long recurring issue is that water exports and dam management are optimized for maximum water deliveries, while the needs of fisheries are continually shortchanged. After decades of mismanagement, we now find ourselves on the brink of mass extinctions, having ignored the ecosystem’s needs in all Delta watershed processes.

Colleagues at San Francisco Baykeeper, Friends of the River, and Defenders of Wildlife led the response, providing deep analysis of how the preferred alternative for coordinated operations will decimate Bay-Delta fisheries. Meanwhile, we and other groups contributed with analysis of the voluntary agreements, climate change, the misuse of drought emergency measures, and the impacts on California tribal cultural and resource needs. We recommend that our readers take the time to digest this comprehensive letter in full, which details the numerous threats to the Delta that would only be exacerbated by the operation of the Delta tunnel. 

For clarity, here is what is immediately at stake:

With the Voluntary Agreements, we will see extinction-level declines in the abundance of Long Smelt, White Sturgeon, Delta Smelt, Fall and Spring run Chinook salmon, and various developmental stages of Winter run salmon. Currently, all fish species would benefit if our water projects were operated with 65% unimpaired flows, moving fisheries toward recovery. Restore the Delta has been advocating for years that rivers moving into and through the Delta should maintain an average of 65% of available water moving through the system. In drought conditions, flow may drop to 55%, which isn’t ideal (60% is), but is closer to meeting the ecosystem’s needs. 

The Delta supports a multitude of tribal cultural resources, fishing economies, Delta agricultural and urban economies, and San Francisco Bay tourism. For nearly two decades, we have called on the State to conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of freshwater flows, examining the socio-economic benefits that a healthy estuary would provide for a robust green economy in California. Unfortunately, sprawl development and the creation of new agricultural technology in the San Joaquin Valley, which perpetuate unsustainable farming, dominate California’s economic planning for the future – all built on Delta water exports.

Are agriculture and energy technology truly more important than California’s iconic salmon runs? Can these promising new ag and climate tech industries become water efficient and scalable, allowing for increased freshwater flows in our rivers? Can we stop the trend of meeting needed reductions in San Joaquin groundwater use by drawing replacement water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta? Additionally, can we build regional efficiencies through water recycling and banking of reduced water supplies with new small-scale infrastructure to lessen our dependence on the Delta, as outlined in the Delta Reform Act?

At Restore the Delta, we will continue to insist in all forums that new energy and agricultural technology projects must not only demonstrate needed climate lifecycle efficiencies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy use, but also incorporate water use reduction.  Climate change mitigation in California cannot succeed without significant decreases in water use from our vulnerable rivers. 

The politics of division through the Delta smelt

With 89% of all Americans, including Californians, supporting the Endangered Species Act, it is clear that the public wants fisheries and wildlife protected while advancing climate change management. Californians also reject waterways filled with toxic green algae, but as fisheries decline from lack of flow, harmful algal blooms proliferate. Reduced flows destroy wildlife and harm communities living near waterways. How can we allow such environmental degradation to become the price of a so-called “green” economy?

The sad truth is that in certain political circles, the Delta smelt has once again been ridiculed as a means to undermine the Biological Opinions that set science-based standards for protecting Delta fish species. Ridiculing a small fish is a cheap tactic that detracts from the magnificence of the largest estuary on the West Coast of the Americas. Ironically, no one ever denigrates the beauty and iconic status of Chinook salmon, which share many of the same water management needs.

If the rules for Delta protection can be disregarded by belittling this small fish, it paves the way for government plans to export more water, violating numerous biological and public health standards under the guise of advancing the green economy. Proposal like the Long Term Operations Plan, building Sites Reservoir– which would reduce unimpaired flow in the Sacramento River and the Delta– or building a Delta tunnel to divert significant flows into underground pipes for use elsewhere in the state are easier to promote when the Delta smelt is framed as insignificant. 

The politics of division, embodied in the Delta smelt, make the water grab easier to execute, as some people who need water for economic development are prioritized over others whose lives, cultures, and economies are tied to healthy rivers and a robust estuary. There is little discussion about the impact on California’s new green economy as water supplies continue to shrink, especially if regional efficiency to maximize water use is not implemented. The buying, selling, and exporting of water remain the foundation for California’s new green economy, rendering promising economic development opportunities incomplete.

To learn more about the politics surrounding the Delta smelt, keep an eye out for our next Delta Flows Podcast with Dr. Caleb Scoville at the end of the month. In the meanwhile, ask state and federal candidates if they support saving and restoring the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary as part of the new green economy. Vote accordingly. Vote for the life of the estuary. Vote for the water foundation needed for a comprehensive and complete green economy that serves all Californians.

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